Tim Duncan has aged like a Prime ribeye

**UPDATE: I am updating this post on 06/05 at 5:25 PM CST prior to game one of The Finals tipping off.  When I initially authored this post, I was all fired up about the Spurs due to Tim Duncan nostalgia.  I picked them in seven.  After pondering this series over the last two days, I am changing my pick to Heat in six for a myriad of reasons.  The most glaring reason is LeBron James being in the peak of his prime.  He won't be denied.

My last update thought is in regards to Charles Barkley.  By retiring at 36, he didn't hold onto his playing career to the point of not being able to go out on his own terms.  He certainly had diminished skills when he hung it up, but his numbers in his last season were respectable.

Original post:

If you've ever eaten USDA Prime beef, you know the supreme taste and tenderness components of Prime versus Choice or Select.  USDA Prime beef has the highest percentage of fat marbling, and such beef is typically available at high-end steakhouses from sea to shining sea.  According to meat purveyors such as Pat La Frieda, fresh beef is roughly 72 percent water.  Dry-aging Prime beef allows much of the water to evaporate, enabling enzymes to partially break down the proteins.  The process bolsters the flavor and leads to a tenderness that makes grown men cry.  It is common for Prime beef to age 30, 50 or even 70 days.

During the Spurs clinching win over the OKC Thunder last Saturday, I tweeted out "Tim Duncan has aged like a Prime ribeye."  The 38 year old future first ballot Hall-of-Fame power forward/center played 39 minutes, pouring in 19 points and snaring 15 rebounds.  With Tony Parker out of the second half lineup with a hobbled ankle, "Old Man River Walk" (as Reggie Miller referred to Duncan on TNT) took a trip down memory lane by putting his beloved Spurs on his back and leading them back to The Finals a full 15 years after he led them there for the first time in 1999.

Tim Duncan's greatness and consistency at an advanced age with diminished athleticism is astonishing.  I have always felt that guards and small forwards have the ability to age gracefully on a basketball court.  Their skills may decline, but it is a gradual process.  For instance, Ray Allen is not nearly the all-around player he once was in his youth, but he is a major contributor for the Miami Heat.  In fact, without Allen's deft shooting touch, Tim Duncan would have won his fifth ring last postseason.  Allen is an older player, but he doesn't look hobbled or out of sorts on the court.  Another example is Derek Fisher.  Fish just completed his 18th season in the NBA, and he found himself playing down the stretch versus the Spurs last Saturday.  Again, he's not the player he once was in Los Angeles, but he is certainly not embarrassing himself by playing.

It doesn't always work out so well for post guys.  I have always contended that power forwards and centers get to a certain age, and it is if their production just falls off a cliff.  During this free fall, all-time greats can look as if they don't even belong on a NBA court.  Think Hakeem Olajuwon in Toronto or Patrick Ewing in Orlando.  Maybe it's their size or the position itself.  Who knows?  I really don't have anything to back up my theory other than the eye test.

After watching Duncan dismantle the Kevin Durant-led Thunder last Saturday, I began to wonder how Duncan's stats as a 37/38 year old (he was 37 during the season, turned 38 on April 25th) stack up against other HOF caliber power forwards and centers.  I have no desire to compare his numbers to guys like Wilt Chamberlain or Bill Russell because that was a different era.  I want to keep the comparison to guys of Duncan's era or guys he at least caught at the end of their careers (Malone, Barkley, Ewing, Dream).  I believe it is proper to include both power forwards and centers in this study because Duncan is truly both, a hybrid depending on the lineup Pop rolls out there.

Player	Age	Year	MP	PPG	RPG	PER
Tim Duncan	37	17	29.2	15.1	9.7	21.3
Kevin Garnett	37	19	20.5	6.5	6.6	13.3
Shaq	37	18	23.4	12	6.7	17.9
David Robinson	37	14	26.2	8.5	7.9	17.8
Karl Malone	37	16	35.7	23.2	8.3	24.7
Charles Barkley	36	16	31	14.5	10.5	19.8
Patrick Ewing	37	15	32.8	15	9.7	16.9
Hakeem Olajuwon	37	16	23.8	10.3	6.2	16.7

I decided to go with minutes per game, points per game, rebounds per game and PER (player efficiency rating) for the regular season only.  The year category is the number of years in the league in the season in which the player was 37 years old.  Charles Barkley's last season came when he was 36.  Here are some observations on the numbers (not in order of how players are listed above):

• Karl Malone was an absolute freak!  The Mailman was well over 20 PPG and posted a 24.7 PER at the ripe old age of 37.  Malone remained a 20 PPG plus scorer for two more seasons at ages 38 and 39.  He "fell off the cliff" during year 19 in the league at age 40 in Los Angeles when his PER dipped to 17.8.  Malone was known for his intense training regiment during his playing days.  It obviously helped lengthen his career.
• Kevin Garnett's production plummeted this season, his 19th in the league.  KG put up only 6.5 PPG and 6.6 RPG and a PER of 13.3.  He is statistically the worst age 37 player on the chart.
• Shaq only played one more season after the age of 37, an injury-plagued year with the Celtics in which he averaged only 9.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG with a PER of 17.4.
• David Robinson retired a two-time champion after his 14th season in the league.  The Spurs won the NBA championship in 2002-03.  D-Rob averaged 7.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG in the playoffs with a PER of 17.7.  Tim Duncan was the primary player for the Spurs during that postseason averaging 24.7 PPG, 15.4 RPG with a 28.4 PER.
• Patrick Ewing was 37 during his last season with the New York Knicks.  He was a productive player that season, but it went downhill from there.  He spent year 16 (age 38) of his career in Seattle averaging 9.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG with a lowly 12.9 PER.  His last season was spent in Orlando averaging 6.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG with a slightly improved PER (from the previous season) of 14.4.
• Hakeem Olajuwon played two more seasons after the age of 37, one in Houston and his final year in Toronto.  He closed out his career averaging 7.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG and a 14.4 PER, the same PER as Ewing during Pat's last stanza.  
• The PPG, RPG and PER show that Tim Duncan is the second best player statistically at age 37 on this list behind only Karl Malone.  That being said, Karl Malone didn't have the stellar post season that Tim Duncan is enjoying this year.  The 2000-01 Jazz went up two games to none versus the Mavs in the first round (best of five) before the Mavs came roaring back to win three straight, taking the series.  

My statistical analysis shows that Tim Duncan, while still great, is on borrowed time.  His check engine light is due to come on, but he is still plugging away as a very effective player.  The Hall-of-Fame caliber players listed in this exercise show that Duncan likely has one more productive season left in the tank (if any).  If Parker's ankle is healthy and the Spurs find a way to upend Miami in The Finals, I wouldn't be shocked if Old Man River Walk waltzes off into the sunset.  Prime beef can hit what is called in the steakhouse world "its aging threshold" in which the meat is aged to a point that most palates find it to be too rich and not appetizing.  At some point very soon, Duncan will hit his aging threshold and "fall off a cliff" production wise.  Until then, let's all enjoy Mr. Fundamental even when he cries to the officials.  I'm taking the Spurs in seven.

Eric L. Taylor