Prepare for the worst AND best

I am currently immersing myself in a Bonnie Biafore, PMP, MCTS course via Lynda.com. Biafore shares a simple yet profound learning for managing risk. When anticipating and/or managing risks, we need to do it in order to reduce the probability and impact of negative events. That makes sense, right?

Additionally, we need to anticipate and/or manage risk to increase the benefit of positive events. Essentially, we need to anticipate and manage positive surprises so we are ready to meet them head on and fully benefit from them when they arise.

Sure, we prepare for the worst. Like one of Coach Neyland's seven maxims teaches, "If at first the game, or breaks, go against you, don't let up. Put on more steam." However, we also must prepare for the breaks to actually go our way so we know what to do when it happens. How many times has good fortune fallen in your lap, and due to hesitation or not knowing what to do, an opportunity slipped through your fingers? Let's all commit to not letting that happen in 2017!

Can a Divided Nation Come to the Center?

I'm a big fan of content churned out and published by Harvard Business School.  Earlier this month, HBS released Problems Unsolved and a Nation Divided.  It's a continuation of their U.S. Competitiveness Project, launched in 2011, as a "multi-year, fact-based effort to understand the disappointing performance of the American economy."  I encourage everyone to read this 70 page document (linked above).

Some of the most critical findings in the study relate to the political paralysis that is crippling our political system and henceforth, our nation.  As I read about and studied this topic, I couldn't help but think about the polarization, divisiveness, political correctness and bully-pulpits that are running rampant in the following arenas:

• Federal government (Washington D.C.)
• State and local governments
• Media (especially national)
• Social media platform discourse 
• Universities
• Corporations

The HBS authors (Michael E. Porter, Jan W. Rivkin, Mihir A. Desai, and Manjari Raman) delve into an eight-point plan for Washington, first released by HBS in 2012 (page 34).  This plan includes but is not limited to simplifying the corporate tax code, easing immigrant for highly skilled individuals, creating a sustainable federal budget, reforming entitlements, and developing America's unconventional energy advantage.  

I believe there are great ideas and intentions that can be applied to the eight-point plan.  These ideas and intentions can be gleaned from across the spectrum of political associations: liberals, conservatives, libertarians, independents, etc.  In order for gleaning from various viewpoints to occur, however, there has to be an awakening and move to radical centrism.  Such a movement would look to address reform opportunities by using pragmatic approaches that would close the ever-widening gap between emotionally driven vs. data driven discourse and solutions (The modern day skew towards emotion is odd considering we've never had better data or data Web sites at our fingertips).  

Emotions and ideals are crucial elements of our culture, but I believe the level of polarization and name-calling (stemming from emotional idealism) in our nation is choking out realistic, common sense solutions and viewpoints.   I completely realize that there will always be zealots on the far right and far left.  Additionally, some issues are inherently difficult to find common ground on simply due to the nature of the issues.  That said, immediately shutting down political opponents, university classmates or social media users due to their stances on particular issues only leads us further down a path of paralysis.  

Can our divided nation come to the center to address the issues laid out by the HBS authors?  The 2016 presidential race makes me extremely skeptical but hopefully over time, we can come together to address the glaring problems that are hurting the U.S. economy in a globalized world.  There are plenty of folks beating the drum for radical moderatism.  Just open your eyes and ears to media outlets and viewpoints that aren't far right or far left leaning.  You don't have to agree with someone 100% to learn from them.  That's a truth I try to keep top-of-mind.

Lessons learned from eating a Kit Kat

Go ahead and take a long, hard look at the above photo.  If that image of a Kit Kat bar doesn't make you crave some milk chocolate and wafer goodness, you are a stronger person than I am.  The Kit Kat bar has a fascinating and long history, and it is still one of the most popular candy bars all over the world.

Every time I bite into a "break" of Kit Kat, I always appreciate the consistent crispiness.  The crispiness of a Kit Kat bar is tasted, felt and even heard.  That crispy texture is even more amazing when you visually examine the inside of a Kit Kat.  The chocolate covering houses three very thin wafers.  How can those wafers produce such a crispy product?  What can we learn from those wafers?

After giving it considerable thought, I believe it would be impossible for a single, thin Kit Kat wafer to produce proper crispiness.  Therefore, the Kit Kat's signature attribute is achieved by three wafers working together in complete unison and harmony.  This concept can be easily applied to any organization - business, sports team, non-profit, church, etc.  As individuals, we all have our capacity bandwidth, strengths and weaknesses.  On our own, we may not produce a proper "crispiness" that leads to desired results.  However, in organizational structure, tribes and teams can be aligned in a manner for individuals to meld together to produce the desired results or at least put them in a position to achieve those results (uncontrollable factors notwithstanding).  Focused teams of talented individuals who put egos aside and pool their strengths in an effort to achieve shared goals can literally reach the stars.

The Kit Kat bar boasts a second attribute that heavily contributes to its awesomeness.  It lies in the filling between the three thin wafers.  That filling is not a special chocolate or creamy filling.  It's actually mashed up Kit Kats that basically act as glue holding it all together. (MIND BLOWN!)  Every sports team or business needs "glue guys" that hold things together.  

Draymond Green is a prime example of a "glue guy."  The Golden State Warriors forward isn't the best player on his basketball team.  That distinction would fall to Steph Curry.  He's not even the second best scorer on his team (that's Klay Thompson).  Green, rather, does all the little things such as defend all five positions, play "point forward," rebound and provide emotional leadership.  Essentially, he's the glue that holds it all together or the straw that stirs the drink.  Every team and/or organization needs team members that can do a myriad of activities well or who are willing to apply their talents in any means necessary to move the organization forward.  

Just like the mashed up Kit Kats, glue guys don't always get the same fanfare that goes to the wafers or stars, but they are crucially vital to the operation.  I work with some great glue guys (and gals) at my professional work organization.  I can also think of glue guys in other facets of my life whether it's a coach pitch baseball team, church group or my college buddies.  

Whether it's thin wafers working together to produce a proper crispy chocolate bar or mashed up pieces of that same bar working as glue to hold it all together, life and business lessons can be gleaned from a Kit Kat.  Are you working in unison with your work teammates?  Or are you a lone wolf that isn't contributing to the crispiness (success)?  Are you a "glue guy?"  If not, how can you extend yourself in order to achieve "glue guy" status?  After all, the glue guy or gal is talented, but much of their success is derived from grit and tenaciousness.  

This is all good food for thought (literally).

Churning up the Dirt with Dad

There's something therapeutic about digging into an overdue home project.  That's exactly what Shay and I did this weekend.  As part of the project, I had to till up a circular area in our yard.  All the sensory elements of running a tiller - feels, sounds, smells and heat - took me back to my childhood with my dad.

Dad always kept five or so old milk jugs full of ice in the deep freeze.  He'd take them out early in the morning and place them in the back of his Dodge Ram.  We'd hop in the cab and head up the hill to the back of our expansive property where his massive garden was nestled in a perfect area for growing a wide range of crops - corn, cucumbers, tomatoes, squash, okra, banana peppers, watermelons and more.  

I remember just how hard he would work the land and how happy it made him.  From the springtime tilling to the late spring hoeing to the summer harvesting, that smell of freshly churned dirt mixed with vegetable plants and sweat is forever etched in my memory bank.  I can still feel the cold rush of slushy water from the milk jugs after they melted a bit on the tailgate.  "Slow down, son.  You're going to make yourself sick if you drink it too fast."  That oasis of water is the coldest I've ever tasted, Yeti included.

Dad's work ethic wasn't just on display in his garden.  Back in the 1970's, he wanted to get a job at Procter and Gamble but failed the physical due to what were deemed "bad veins" in his legs.  Undaunted, he opted for a surgical procedure to correct the issue.  He showed back up to P&G, passed the interview (again) and aced the physical.  He wound up working there in a variety of roles for 15 years and ultimately retired from the company.

Sometimes the harsh elements weren't enough of a challenge for Dad.  I can still see him in the middle of sweltering July heat cutting the grass all the while wearing a large belt/wrap affixed with Velcro around his waist.  It was designed to make him ever hotter sweating out more fluids, and in his mind, keep him slim and trim.  

Once Dad hit his mid-to-late 70's, his body really started to succumb to cancer.  Once he knew he had only a couple of years left, he feverishly knocked out a myriad of home improvement projects so my Mom would be set up for success once he passed.  He was tough as nails and harder working than anyone I've ever known.

A couple of years ago, I was chatting with a childhood friend of  Dad's.  He told me my grandfather, Asa Taylor, used to tout my dad back when he (dad) was a child stating young Harry Lynn, "could outwork any man in Henderson County."  In reality, Dad had to grow up too fast, but it set in stone habits and principles that he adhered to for his entire life.

My mom and sister certainly have their share of stories they could add to this post.  He's been gone 10 years, but his life lessons live on.  Now I have a couple of young boys tugging on my cape.  I pray I'm etching memories they can cherish one day once I'm down in the dirt.

2015-16 NBA predictions

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland

2. Atlanta

3. Washington

4. Chicago

5. Miami

6. New York

7. Boston

8. Toronto

The East is wide open for the last four playoff seeds.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Charlotte, Milwaukee, Detroit, Indiana or Orlando qualifies for the tournament.  That said, I am going with the eight teams above.

1^st round winners: Cleveland, Atlanta, New York, Miami

Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland over Miami

Western Conference

1. Golden State

2. OKC

3. San Antonio

4. Clippers

5. Memphis

6. Houston

7. Dallas

8. New Orleans

The West seems more top heavy than even throughout.  I believe Utah and Phoenix will be in the mix for the eight seed.  Also, Portland will be fun to watch, and Sacramento will win some games based on their talent.  However, the Kings will be a debacle chemistry wise with Rondo, Cousins and Karl.  That’s a trio that won’t finish the season intact.  Minnesota might surprise some folks too.

1^st round winners: Golden State, OKC, San Antonio, Memphis

(Blow up the Clippers!  The Grizz will take them out in the first round.  Doc Rivers might get fired.  I love Doc, but I seriously believe they will implode in the playoffs even with Paul Pierce).

Western Conference Finals: Golden State over San Antonio

NBA Finals: Cleveland over Golden State – I went rematch with a different outcome.

MVP: Steph Curry (repeat)

DPOY: Anthony Davis

6^th man: If Noah continues to come in off the bench for the Bulls, the award will be his.  I suspect he will start most games so I’m going with his college teammate Corey Brewer.  Also, Derrick Williams will have a shot for this as he’s instant energy off the bench for the Knicks. 

Rookie of the year: Kristaps Porzingis (Y’all heard it here first.  He’s more ready than people realize).  That is a heart pick though.  Most likely, it will be Karl Anthony Towns.

Coach of the year: Billy Donovan – OKC is back in a major way!

Most Improved: Derrick Williams – NYK all day!!

Dolphins rise to meet Campbell's challenge

In the first few weeks following Joe Philbin's ouster as Dolphins head coach and Dan Campbell's ascension to the role, it is crystal clear that Stephen Ross and Dolphins brass made the correct decision in firing Philbin.  In fact, they should have done it sooner.

Campbell's complete opposite approach (from Philbin) is flat out working.  Granted, Coach Campbell's two wins have been against AFC South doormats (Titans and Texans), but the Miami Dolphins are obviously playing better in all three phases no matter the competition.  That competition will be much improved this Thursday as the Fish travel to Foxborough to face the vaunted Pats.

I'm currently reading Carly Fiorina's 2006 memoir Tough Choices.  In chapter 16, she delves into leadership during times of change:

As is true whenever a new leader issues a challenge, a critical mass of the old-timers must rise to that challenge.  If this fails to happen, the new leader is simply ignored.

Fiorina goes onto expound on those two sentences, but there's a ton of meat on the bone in just the two sentences alone.  In relation to the Dolphins, Coach Campbell, a new leader, has certainly challenged their mindset and toughness and completely revamped their practice habits.  Campbell has shed complacency and protecting players egos in favor of ultra-competitive practices that lay bare any deficiencies.  He has issued challenges from the very first moment of his promotion to head coach.  The "old-timers" in this instance are the players.  They have risen to the challenges and embraced Campbell's hard-nosed approach.  If the players were ignoring Campbell or tuning out his message, the Dolphins would not have beaten the bark off the Titans and Texans in consecutive weeks.

Fiorina believes that a choice must be made to either follow or not follow a new leader/change agent who has issued challenges.  The Miami Dolphins look like a completely different team under Campbell.  From the quarterback play of Ryan Tannehill to the powerful running of Lamar Miller to the improved run defense, Campbell has unearthed the the very best from his players; they have accepted his challenges.  Check out this link to see how well the Dolphins performed today versus the hapless Texans. 

History Repeats Itself

UPDATE 01/17/2016:

When I originally typed out this blog post back in September, I knew Peyton Manning's season was trending down a path very similar to Dan Marino's 1999 (final) season in the NFL.  However, I had no idea that the respective seasons would be almost identical.

Dan Marino 1999 regular season:
11 games played, 55.3% completions, 2,448 yards, 12 TD, 17 Int, 67.4 rating, 5-6 team record with Marino as starting QB.

Peyton Manning 2015 regular season:
10 games played (9 started), 59.8% completions, 2,249 yards, 9 TD, 17 Int, 67.9 rating, 7-2 team record with Manning as starting QB (8-2 overall record in games played).

In addition to the eerily similar statistics, both legends missed multiple games due to injury and eventually had to fend off younger, upstart QBs to retain their jobs.  Damon Huard was the QB pressing Marino in 1999, and Huard finished with a much better TD to INT ratio (2 to 1).  Additionally, Huard was 4-1 as the starter which obviously bettered Marino's 5-6 mark.

Manning, on the other hand, actually LOST his job for one half of football to strong armed Brock Osweiler who boasted a 5-2 record as the starter.  Osweiler also protected the football much better than Manning by tossing 10 TD to 6 Int.

Last, both Marino and Manning clashed with coaches and front offices.  Marino and Jimmy Johnson shared a strained relationship throughout their partnership, particularly so in 1999.  Likewise, Manning had to deal with an offense that wasn't catered (and still isn't) to his every whim.  He lined up more under center as opposed to shotgun which doesn't suit his strengths.  Finally, as stated previously, a healthy Manning was the backup QB in a game (season finale versus San Diego) for the first time since September 1994, his freshman season at the University of Tennessee.  Coach Kubiak called Manning's number in the second half of the Chargers game and won because of it.  That said, who knows the status of Peyton's relationship with both Kubiak and John Elway?

Fast forward to today, and Manning is starting in the divisional round of the playoffs at home versus the Pittsburgh Steelers in a cold weather affair in Denver.  Manning has never fared well in cold weather.  Also, he's had his fair share of one-and-done moments in the NFL playoffs.

Another obstacle today will be the hobbled yet vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers.  After last week's backyard brawl in Cincy, the Steelers are missing some key cogs.  Also, Big Ben's throwing shoulder is injured.  Nevertheless, there's no one who comes through in big games better than Roethlisberger.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are an organization that has won big games throughout their history, and their signal caller is a savvy veteran that can make chicken salad out of chicken shit when things break down and instincts and pure athleticism take over.  The Steelers are a battle tested, formidable opponent.

I still believe Denver will win the game.  The Broncos boast a stout Wade Phillips led defense that will be dialing it up in front of a rabid home crowd.  Second, Denver can run the ball effectively with Hillman and Anderson which will take some pressure off Manning.  Last, I think Peyton comes through today.  He's had an extra week off to get his arm (and body) ready for competition.  It will be a close game, and Peyton will have to make some throws down the stretch for Denver to win.  Call me a homer, but I predict he gets it done.  I hope I'm right because I'm salivating for a Brady vs. Manning AFC title game.

The whole 2015 Manning saga is somewhat sentimental because I've rooted for Peyton Manning since the fall of 1994 - my sophomore year of high school.  I know many other Tennesseans will be cheering for the VFL a.k.a. "The Sheriff" to get it done today!  Perhaps today's game will serve as the springboard for another Super Bowl run.

Broncos 24
Steelers 21

ORIGINAL POST 09/16/2015:

When scouring annals of history, holy scriptures or sports almanacs, certain truths and patterns become evident.  One of these is the old adage "History repeats itself."  For my two favorite quarterbacks and football players of all-time, I believe we are in the midst of history repeating itself almost identically.

For my money, from a pure execution standpoint, there's nothing in sporting history more awe inspiring than watching Dan Marino sling the pigskin.  His supreme confidence, rocket arm and lightning fast release made Dolphins games during his tenure "must watch TV."  Even so, legends can't play forever.  A 38 year old Dan Marino entered his final NFL campaign in 1999 a shell of himself physically.  Various leg injuries (including an Achilles tear) over the years had taken their toll on the cocksure gunslinger.  Marino was still capable of big games, but his consistent dominance was a thing of the past.  He still had the arm strength, but I remember how painful it was watching him stretch like Mister Fantastic just to put a handoff in running back J.J. Johnson's breadbasket.  Marino's legs were shot.

Dan Marino threw 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions during the 1999 campaign, and the Dolphins earned a wildcard playoff berth with a 9-7 record.  In the wildcard game, the Dolphins traveled to Seattle to play the Seahawks in the Kingdome, and that was the scene of Marino's last stand.  I liken it to Davey Crockett defending the Alamo to the bitter end - two legendary figures fighting tooth and nail.  NFL football and the Texas Revolution aren't exactly the same thing, but mentalities of battle-hardened, high achieving, competitive men are alike no matter if the stakes are football glory or Texas independence. 

Marino had a paltry final NFL regular season by his elite standards, but he still had the stones to lead the Dolphins on a fourth quarter touchdown drive comeback in a hostile environment to pull out a 20-17 win.  The game had an eerie feeling of finality, and sure enough, Marino and the Dolphins ran into an absolute buzz saw the following Saturday in Jacksonville.  Marino could only watch his career end helplessly from the bench as the Jaguars channeled their inner Santa Anna (see what I did there?) and bludgeoned the Dolphins by a final tally of 62-7. 

Fast forward to 2015 and a 39 year old Peyton Manning is now 1999 Dan Marino - a beloved icon that is no longer physically up to dominating his sport.  Manning is accustomed to being the most prolific passer in the entire league.  His preparation, mental football acumen, competitive drive and ability to find the end zone have only been rivaled by Tom Brady and a handful of others over the past 15 plus years. 

If you watched the way last season ended for Peyton and the Broncos, the writing was on the wall.  Manning is probably the smartest quarterback to ever line up under center, but after numerous neck surgeries he can no longer throw the football with the type of velocity needed to be an elite passer.  If you can't admit this, you're looking through biased orange tinted (Broncos or Vols) glasses. 

Another problem for Manning is new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison isn't exactly catering his offense to Peyton.  Like Marino under Jimmy Johnson (history repeating itself), there seems to be a bit of angst in Denver.  Peyton is lining up more under center as opposed to shotgun.  It just feels different than the old days in Indy and Denver when Peyton was quarterback and partial offensive coordinator and head coach.  In his prime, Manning ran the show. 

The Broncos won their week 1 game this past weekend over the Ravens, but Manning was 24 of 40 for 175 yards and no touchdown passes.  To put that in perspective, Manning threw SEVEN, yes SEVEN touchdown passes in the 2013 opener. 

I believe that Manning will end the season with statistics markedly better than Marino in 1999.  After all, the league is in love with fantasy football and the interest it brings to the league. Hence, defenses have been handcuffed by rules and regulations.  Passing touchdowns aren't exactly hard to come by.  That notwithstanding, Manning is the best statistical quarterback in NFL history for a reason.  He's Toby Keith-esque, "not as good as he was once was but as good once as he ever was."  He'll have a handful of big games.  The Broncos will probably even make the playoffs similar to the Dolphins in 1999. 

My hope is that Peyton can find that often elusive playoff success and go out like Dan Marino in Seattle or Davey Crockett in San Antonio.  Crockett died at the Alamo, and Marino was humiliated in Jacksonville, but they both had skins on the wall from going out guns blazing.  I have little hope of Denver being good enough to win the AFC.  I don't see how Manning can thrive with regular season mileage and cold weather playoff conditions.  I do believe he'll be a sentimental favorite, and he'll go out the only way he knows how, yelling "Omaha" and throwing the damn pill.