History Repeats Itself

UPDATE 01/17/2016:

When I originally typed out this blog post back in September, I knew Peyton Manning's season was trending down a path very similar to Dan Marino's 1999 (final) season in the NFL.  However, I had no idea that the respective seasons would be almost identical.

Dan Marino 1999 regular season:
11 games played, 55.3% completions, 2,448 yards, 12 TD, 17 Int, 67.4 rating, 5-6 team record with Marino as starting QB.

Peyton Manning 2015 regular season:
10 games played (9 started), 59.8% completions, 2,249 yards, 9 TD, 17 Int, 67.9 rating, 7-2 team record with Manning as starting QB (8-2 overall record in games played).

In addition to the eerily similar statistics, both legends missed multiple games due to injury and eventually had to fend off younger, upstart QBs to retain their jobs.  Damon Huard was the QB pressing Marino in 1999, and Huard finished with a much better TD to INT ratio (2 to 1).  Additionally, Huard was 4-1 as the starter which obviously bettered Marino's 5-6 mark.

Manning, on the other hand, actually LOST his job for one half of football to strong armed Brock Osweiler who boasted a 5-2 record as the starter.  Osweiler also protected the football much better than Manning by tossing 10 TD to 6 Int.

Last, both Marino and Manning clashed with coaches and front offices.  Marino and Jimmy Johnson shared a strained relationship throughout their partnership, particularly so in 1999.  Likewise, Manning had to deal with an offense that wasn't catered (and still isn't) to his every whim.  He lined up more under center as opposed to shotgun which doesn't suit his strengths.  Finally, as stated previously, a healthy Manning was the backup QB in a game (season finale versus San Diego) for the first time since September 1994, his freshman season at the University of Tennessee.  Coach Kubiak called Manning's number in the second half of the Chargers game and won because of it.  That said, who knows the status of Peyton's relationship with both Kubiak and John Elway?

Fast forward to today, and Manning is starting in the divisional round of the playoffs at home versus the Pittsburgh Steelers in a cold weather affair in Denver.  Manning has never fared well in cold weather.  Also, he's had his fair share of one-and-done moments in the NFL playoffs.

Another obstacle today will be the hobbled yet vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers.  After last week's backyard brawl in Cincy, the Steelers are missing some key cogs.  Also, Big Ben's throwing shoulder is injured.  Nevertheless, there's no one who comes through in big games better than Roethlisberger.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are an organization that has won big games throughout their history, and their signal caller is a savvy veteran that can make chicken salad out of chicken shit when things break down and instincts and pure athleticism take over.  The Steelers are a battle tested, formidable opponent.

I still believe Denver will win the game.  The Broncos boast a stout Wade Phillips led defense that will be dialing it up in front of a rabid home crowd.  Second, Denver can run the ball effectively with Hillman and Anderson which will take some pressure off Manning.  Last, I think Peyton comes through today.  He's had an extra week off to get his arm (and body) ready for competition.  It will be a close game, and Peyton will have to make some throws down the stretch for Denver to win.  Call me a homer, but I predict he gets it done.  I hope I'm right because I'm salivating for a Brady vs. Manning AFC title game.

The whole 2015 Manning saga is somewhat sentimental because I've rooted for Peyton Manning since the fall of 1994 - my sophomore year of high school.  I know many other Tennesseans will be cheering for the VFL a.k.a. "The Sheriff" to get it done today!  Perhaps today's game will serve as the springboard for another Super Bowl run.

Broncos 24
Steelers 21

ORIGINAL POST 09/16/2015:

When scouring annals of history, holy scriptures or sports almanacs, certain truths and patterns become evident.  One of these is the old adage "History repeats itself."  For my two favorite quarterbacks and football players of all-time, I believe we are in the midst of history repeating itself almost identically.

For my money, from a pure execution standpoint, there's nothing in sporting history more awe inspiring than watching Dan Marino sling the pigskin.  His supreme confidence, rocket arm and lightning fast release made Dolphins games during his tenure "must watch TV."  Even so, legends can't play forever.  A 38 year old Dan Marino entered his final NFL campaign in 1999 a shell of himself physically.  Various leg injuries (including an Achilles tear) over the years had taken their toll on the cocksure gunslinger.  Marino was still capable of big games, but his consistent dominance was a thing of the past.  He still had the arm strength, but I remember how painful it was watching him stretch like Mister Fantastic just to put a handoff in running back J.J. Johnson's breadbasket.  Marino's legs were shot.

Dan Marino threw 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions during the 1999 campaign, and the Dolphins earned a wildcard playoff berth with a 9-7 record.  In the wildcard game, the Dolphins traveled to Seattle to play the Seahawks in the Kingdome, and that was the scene of Marino's last stand.  I liken it to Davey Crockett defending the Alamo to the bitter end - two legendary figures fighting tooth and nail.  NFL football and the Texas Revolution aren't exactly the same thing, but mentalities of battle-hardened, high achieving, competitive men are alike no matter if the stakes are football glory or Texas independence. 

Marino had a paltry final NFL regular season by his elite standards, but he still had the stones to lead the Dolphins on a fourth quarter touchdown drive comeback in a hostile environment to pull out a 20-17 win.  The game had an eerie feeling of finality, and sure enough, Marino and the Dolphins ran into an absolute buzz saw the following Saturday in Jacksonville.  Marino could only watch his career end helplessly from the bench as the Jaguars channeled their inner Santa Anna (see what I did there?) and bludgeoned the Dolphins by a final tally of 62-7. 

Fast forward to 2015 and a 39 year old Peyton Manning is now 1999 Dan Marino - a beloved icon that is no longer physically up to dominating his sport.  Manning is accustomed to being the most prolific passer in the entire league.  His preparation, mental football acumen, competitive drive and ability to find the end zone have only been rivaled by Tom Brady and a handful of others over the past 15 plus years. 

If you watched the way last season ended for Peyton and the Broncos, the writing was on the wall.  Manning is probably the smartest quarterback to ever line up under center, but after numerous neck surgeries he can no longer throw the football with the type of velocity needed to be an elite passer.  If you can't admit this, you're looking through biased orange tinted (Broncos or Vols) glasses. 

Another problem for Manning is new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison isn't exactly catering his offense to Peyton.  Like Marino under Jimmy Johnson (history repeating itself), there seems to be a bit of angst in Denver.  Peyton is lining up more under center as opposed to shotgun.  It just feels different than the old days in Indy and Denver when Peyton was quarterback and partial offensive coordinator and head coach.  In his prime, Manning ran the show. 

The Broncos won their week 1 game this past weekend over the Ravens, but Manning was 24 of 40 for 175 yards and no touchdown passes.  To put that in perspective, Manning threw SEVEN, yes SEVEN touchdown passes in the 2013 opener. 

I believe that Manning will end the season with statistics markedly better than Marino in 1999.  After all, the league is in love with fantasy football and the interest it brings to the league. Hence, defenses have been handcuffed by rules and regulations.  Passing touchdowns aren't exactly hard to come by.  That notwithstanding, Manning is the best statistical quarterback in NFL history for a reason.  He's Toby Keith-esque, "not as good as he was once was but as good once as he ever was."  He'll have a handful of big games.  The Broncos will probably even make the playoffs similar to the Dolphins in 1999. 

My hope is that Peyton can find that often elusive playoff success and go out like Dan Marino in Seattle or Davey Crockett in San Antonio.  Crockett died at the Alamo, and Marino was humiliated in Jacksonville, but they both had skins on the wall from going out guns blazing.  I have little hope of Denver being good enough to win the AFC.  I don't see how Manning can thrive with regular season mileage and cold weather playoff conditions.  I do believe he'll be a sentimental favorite, and he'll go out the only way he knows how, yelling "Omaha" and throwing the damn pill.